Peter Fleissner‘s simulation model shows that Austria is on a good track to starve out the SARS-CoV-2, if the lifting of the countermeasures will not be too soon. According to his model, the development of the epidemic is approaching the point at which the number of incidences could go down to zero. After another 14 days, the situation would allow to isolate and trace back any possible outbreak.
Following such a strategy would enable to safely lift measures that are detrimental to the economic development within one’s own country and would rule out a possible second peak with another necessary lock-down that together with the first would have a greater impact as the first one – as to deaths as well as to economic losses.
What is even more, it would make it possible to establish free-floating intercourse with other countries that are in the same position. In doing so, more and more countries could join a growing virus-free zone. Fleissner says,
This procedure we should continue up to the moment where the EU-member states are united again.
The Helmholtz Initiative on a systemic epidemiological analysis of the COVID-19 epidemic has arrived at similar recommendations. It distinguishes between three scenarios:
- Scenario 1: Easing the contact restrictions such that the value of Rt is increasing above 1; would lead to an overload of the health care system.
- Scenario 2: Choosing contact restrictions and accompanying measures such that Rt stays in the region of 1; would lead to a perpetuation of restrictions and measures that would not yield the immunisation of the population in a sufficiently short time.
- Scenario 3: Contact restrictions and accompanying measures are kept such that Rt decreases on a sustained basis to a sufficiently low value below 1; would lead to the containment of possible outbreaks.
The third scenario is the preferred alternative.
Addendum: On 1 May 2020, Peter Fleissner stopped working on the simulation model. The relative forecasting error has a value normally unmatched in economy. His proposed strategy was not followed by any of the governments of EU.
Furthermore, he gives online talks. If you are interested, please, write to him.